科技通报

本文利用台风工程模型模拟得到近30年历年台风最大风速。结合极值Ⅰ型分布计算得到浙江省50年一遇台风最大风速，将其作为浙江电网台风风险致灾因子的危险性评估指标。基于灾害学理论，分析浙江电网台风风灾的孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性和致灾因子危险性，提出浙江电网台风风灾风险评估方法。得到如下结论：（1）利用2个典型台风对台风工程模型模拟效果进行验证，其误差水平可被工程应用接受。（2）基于台风工程模型绘制的50年一遇最大风速分布图的形态与基于气象观测数据的台风风区划图类似，说明基于台风工程模型绘制的台风风区划图是可信的。基于模拟数据的台风风区划图高值区主要分布在沿海及岛屿附近，局地最高值可达到41 m/s以上，全省大多数地区都在23.5 m/s以下。（3）基于灾害理论绘制的浙江电网台风风灾风险分布图显示，浙江电网台风风灾风险值最高的杆塔位于温州和台州沿海地区，风险值最低的杆塔位于湖州、杭州、绍兴及衢州地区。

The maximum annual typhoon wind speeds over the past 30 years were simulated using a typhoon engineering model. Combined with the Type I extreme value distribution, the maximum typhoon wind speed with a 50-year return period in Zhejiang Province was calculated, which was used as the hazard assessment index for the disaster-causing factors of typhoon risks in the Zhejiang Power Grid. Based on the disaster science theory, the sensitivity of the disasterpregnant environment, vulnerability of the disaster-bearing bodies and hazard of the disaster-causing factors of typhoon wind disasters in the Zhejiang Power Grid were analyzed, and a risk assessment method for typhoon wind disasters in the Zhejiang Power Grid was proposed. The following conclusions were drawn:(1) The simulation effect of the typhoon engineering model was verified with two typical typhoons, and its error level is acceptable for engineering applications.(2) The pattern of the 50-year return period maximum wind speed distribution map drawn based on the typhoon engineering model is similar to that of the typhoon wind zoning map based on meteorological observation data, which indicates that the typhoon wind zoning map drawn with the typhoon engineering model is reliable. The high-value areas of the typhoon wind zoning map based on simulated data are mainly distributed along the coast and near islands, with the local maximum values exceeding 41 m/s, while the wind speeds in most areas of the province are below 23.5 m/s.(3) The typhoon risk distribution map of the Zhejiang Power Grid drawn based on the disaster theory shows that the transmission towers with the highest typhoon wind disaster risks in the Zhejiang Power Grid are located in the coastal areas of Wenzhou and Taizhou, and those with the lowest risks are in Huzhou, Hangzhou, Shaoxing and Quzhou.